Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
38
Model margin
+7.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.126EPA / play-0.003
- 39.0%Success rate40.3%
- -0.066EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.243EPA / rush-0.138
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- 36.7%Third-down rate41.3%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 1.04Points / drive1.62
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.104EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Brown | 11/13 | 140 | 1 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 8/15 | 51 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 6 | 9 | 94 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 25/34 | 217 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Autry | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Lewis | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Darnell Autry | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.81