2000 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

9·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 39°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

38

Model margin

+7.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapEagles
  • -0.126EPA / play-0.003
  • 39.0%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.066EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.243EPA / rush-0.138
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 36.7%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 39.7%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
  • 1.04Points / drive1.62
  • 4.0%Turnover rate2.5%
  • +0.104EPA / play allowed-0.085

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–PHI
ARIQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:2943Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:0564Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 8:02427Turnover3–0
ARIQ1 6:0030Punt3–0
PHIQ1 4:433-3Punt3–0
ARIQ1 2:59636Punt3–0
PHIQ2 14:161164Field goal3–3
ARIQ2 8:523-1Punt3–3
PHIQ2 6:53962Turnover3–3
ARIQ2 2:1547Punt3–3
PHIQ2 1:35715Touchdown3–10
ARIQ2 0:1928End of half3–10
PHIQ3 15:001675Touchdown3–17
ARIQ3 6:28519Punt3–17
PHIQ3 3:5532Punt3–17
ARIQ3 2:45710Punt3–17
PHIQ4 13:55972Field goal3–20
ARIQ4 9:0235Opp touchdown3–27
PHIQ4 7:4000Opp touchdown3–27
ARIQ4 7:40766Touchdown9–27
PHIQ4 4:43621Touchdown9–34
ARIQ4 1:57651End of half9–34

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dave Brown11/1314011
Jake Plummer8/155100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman13493.80
Jake Plummer2115.50
Thomas Jones1-2-2.00
MarTay Jenkins1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston69941
Thomas Jones34380
Michael Pittman66290
Frank Sanders22190
MarTay Jenkins1280
Terry Hardy1230
Tywan Mitchell0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb25/3421711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darnell Autry16593.71
Donovan McNabb5295.81
Stanley Pritchett7294.10
Cecil Martin3175.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Lewis55520
Stanley Pritchett44470
Luther Broughton33360
Darnell Autry56310
Na Brown11180
Torrance Small15120
Jeff Thomason23121
Brian Mitchell2260
Donovan McNabb1120
Cecil Martin1110
Charles Johnson0200
Todd Pinkston0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +72.9%5.7%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.4%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.81