Closing spread
SF -5.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.193EPA / play+0.086
- 37.5%Success rate42.2%
- -0.176EPA / dropback+0.195
- -0.225EPA / rush-0.115
- 6.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- 29.3%Third-down rate41.2%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.06Points / drive1.90
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.015EPA / play allowed+0.092
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. SF are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 16/33 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 16/31 | 210 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 9 | 50 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 6 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 4 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 4 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.87