Closing spread
MIN -9.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.102
- 40.9%Success rate44.7%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.026
- 6.7%Explosive rate10.6%
- 39.7%Third-down rate46.0%
- 37.3%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.31Points / drive2.14
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 8:09 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 5:41 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 4:55 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 3:17 | 6 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 1:19 | 2 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q1 0:29 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 7–14 |
| MIN | Q2 14:03 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| CAR | Q2 10:35 | 12 | 52 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| MIN | Q2 4:54 | 8 | 20 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| CAR | Q2 1:07 | 5 | 30 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| MIN | Q2 0:20 | 2 | 32 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 66 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| CAR | Q3 12:16 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 14–24 |
| MIN | Q3 8:07 | 11 | 81 | Touchdown | 14–31 |
| CAR | Q3 2:02 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 14–31 |
| MIN | Q4 13:56 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 14–31 |
| CAR | Q4 10:50 | 12 | 66 | Field goal | 17–31 |
| MIN | Q4 4:27 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 17–31 |
| CAR | Q4 3:18 | 5 | 30 | Turnover | 17–31 |
| MIN | Q4 2:14 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–31 |
| CAR | Q4 0:58 | 6 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 17–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 26/44 | 272 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bates | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Dameyune Craig | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 6 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Iheanyi Uwaezuoke | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Michael Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Karl Hankton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Crawford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 22/29 | 357 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 23 | 103 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 8 | 10 | 138 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 5 | 8 | 106 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 3 | 3 | 70 | 1 |
| John Davis | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.53