Closing spread
NE -7
Total
36
Model margin
+1.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.157EPA / play-0.079
- 34.1%Success rate38.3%
- -0.180EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.195
- 8.3%Explosive rate5.5%
- 34.8%Third-down rate35.1%
- 34.6%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 0.82Points / drive1.30
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 10–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. NE are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mitchell | 20/38 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 28 | 79 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Scott Mitchell | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 7 | 12 | 79 | 1 |
| Craig Yeast | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 22/36 | 258 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Pass | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 11 | 15 | 129 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 8 | 12 | 110 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Shockmain Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.28
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.86