Closing spread
NYG -5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.143EPA / play+0.016
- 36.6%Success rate40.1%
- -0.141EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.130
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.7%
- 31.8%Third-down rate39.9%
- 47.8%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.23Points / drive1.73
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 7–4 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. NYG are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 20/32 | 225 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 22 | 52 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 6 | 8 | 78 | 1 |
| David Sloan | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 4 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| Walter Rasby | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 29/51 | 350 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 8 | 12 | 108 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 8 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 5 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Thabiti Davis | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 2 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Howard Cross | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.09