2000 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

34·24

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Three Rivers Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 35°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

37

Model margin

+1.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.044
  • 41.4%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.066EPA / dropback-0.014
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.9%
  • 42.8%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.37
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%
  • -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.119

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–PIT
JAXQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:5033Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:28720Punt0–0
PITQ1 7:5041Punt0–0
JAXQ1 5:211-6Turnover0–0
PITQ1 5:15337Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 4:1036Punt0–7
PITQ1 2:41620Punt0–7
JAXQ2 14:4831Punt0–7
PITQ2 13:4827Turnover0–7
JAXQ2 13:04871Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 9:16754Field goal7–10
JAXQ2 5:49865Touchdown14–10
PITQ2 1:2036Turnover14–10
JAXQ2 0:39521Field goal17–10
PITQ2 0:0400End of half17–10
PITQ3 15:003-7Punt17–10
JAXQ3 13:46955Field goal20–10
PITQ3 8:4900Touchdown20–10
JAXQ3 8:49236Touchdown27–10
PITQ3 8:04629Turnover27–10
JAXQ3 5:00458Touchdown34–10
PITQ3 3:27861Touchdown34–16
JAXQ4 14:55834Turnover34–16
PITQ4 10:36866Touchdown34–24
JAXQ4 7:4230Punt34–24
PITQ4 6:33625Missed field goal34–24
JAXQ4 4:39749Turnover on downs34–24
PITQ4 1:0220Turnover34–24
JAXQ4 0:452-2End of half34–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell17/3119011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor302347.83
Shyrone Stith351.70
Mark Brunell310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith611850
Kyle Brady56620
Keenan McCardell35290
Fred Taylor37141
Rich Griffith0100
Alvis Whitted0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart13/2718812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kordell Stewart6599.82
Jerome Bettis12574.80
Richard Huntley6315.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bobby Shaw58810
Hines Ward37601
Richard Huntley11180
Courtney Hawkins13120
Matt Cushing2290
Mark Bruener1280
Troy Edwards0200
Plaxico Burress0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.09