Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
37
Model margin
+1.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.044
- 41.4%Success rate38.6%
- +0.066EPA / dropback-0.014
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- 42.8%Third-down rate37.4%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.87Points / drive1.37
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 17/31 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 30 | 234 | 7.8 | 3 |
| Shyrone Stith | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 6 | 11 | 85 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 3 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
| Rich Griffith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 13/27 | 188 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 6 | 59 | 9.8 | 2 |
| Jerome Bettis | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Shaw | 5 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Matt Cushing | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.09