2000 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

20·3

Dolphins

Miami

QB Damon Huard

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

MIA -3.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.033
  • 39.6%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.081
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.150
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 37.5%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.52
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.101EPA / play allowed-0.111

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:0565Punt0–0
MIAQ1 9:193-2Punt0–0
NYJQ1 7:101137Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 1:02634Turnover3–0
NYJQ2 12:55417Turnover3–0
MIAQ2 10:54714Turnover3–0
NYJQ2 7:163-6Punt3–0
MIAQ2 6:051061Field goal3–3
NYJQ2 1:08765Field goal6–3
NYJQ3 15:00410Punt6–3
MIAQ3 13:1939Punt6–3
NYJQ3 11:1730Punt6–3
MIAQ3 10:4630Punt6–3
NYJQ3 10:193-3Punt6–3
MIAQ3 8:39728Punt6–3
NYJQ3 4:581264Turnover6–3
MIAQ4 13:55416Punt6–3
NYJQ4 11:4735Punt6–3
MIAQ4 10:0733Turnover6–3
NYJQ4 8:18327Touchdown13–3
MIAQ4 6:5224Turnover13–3
NYJQ4 6:00518Touchdown20–3
MIAQ4 3:12630Turnover on downs20–3
NYJQ4 1:5530End of half20–3

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde14/2911302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernie Parmalee14574.12
Curtis Martin14543.90
Vinny Testaverde2147.00
Dwight Stone199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wayne Chrebet39330
Dedric Ward13120
Bernie Parmalee1380
Anthony Becht2480
Windrell Hayes0100
Curtis Martin12-10

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Damon Huard16/2912803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.J. Johnson10505.00
Autry Denson6213.50
Lamar Smith6122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Oronde Gadsden23420
J.J. Johnson44240
O.J. McDuffie13180
Leslie Shepherd25150
Autry Denson34140
Jed Weaver1360
Lamar Smith1130
Tony Martin0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.6%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.99
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.22