Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.033
- 39.6%Success rate38.4%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.150
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- 37.5%Third-down rate34.3%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.29Points / drive1.52
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.101EPA / play allowed-0.111
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 14/29 | 113 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernie Parmalee | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Curtis Martin | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dwight Stone | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 3 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Windrell Hayes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 16/29 | 128 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Johnson | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.99
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.22