Closing spread
DEN -9.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 65 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 8:45 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:57 | 9 | 7 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 4:41 | 11 | 38 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:47 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| DEN | Q2 13:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 12:02 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 10–7 |
| DEN | Q2 9:48 | 8 | 65 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 5:55 | 5 | 78 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| DEN | Q2 3:15 | 7 | 50 | Opp touchdown | 24–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:25 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 24–7 |
| DEN | Q2 1:25 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:24 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 24–10 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 5 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q3 12:43 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 27–10 |
| DEN | Q3 11:25 | 8 | 71 | Missed field goal | 27–10 |
| LAC | Q3 7:20 | 1 | -5 | Turnover | 27–10 |
| DEN | Q3 7:15 | 4 | 26 | Touchdown | 27–17 |
| LAC | Q3 5:08 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 27–17 |
| DEN | Q3 4:09 | 7 | 26 | Turnover | 27–17 |
| LAC | Q3 0:59 | 2 | 80 | Touchdown | 34–17 |
| DEN | Q3 0:08 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 34–24 |
| LAC | Q4 13:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 34–24 |
| DEN | Q4 11:42 | 4 | 5 | Turnover | 34–24 |
| LAC | Q4 10:41 | 6 | 27 | Field goal | 37–24 |
| DEN | Q4 7:13 | 5 | 76 | Touchdown | 37–31 |
| LAC | Q4 4:59 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 37–31 |
| DEN | Q4 3:44 | 6 | 45 | Touchdown | 37–38 |
| LAC | Q4 1:33 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 37–38 |
| DEN | Q4 0:43 | 3 | -4 | End of half | 37–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 36/58 | 462 | 5 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 19 | 97 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 11 | 19 | 187 | 1 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 10 | 14 | 148 | 2 |
| Mike Anderson | 6 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.04
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.70
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.