Closing spread
DEN -9.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 36/58 | 462 | 5 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 19 | 97 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 11 | 19 | 187 | 1 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 10 | 14 | 148 | 2 |
| Mike Anderson | 6 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.04
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.70
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.