2000 · Week 12 · Division
Final
Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
TB -8
Total
36
Model margin
+0.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.144
- 39.8%Success rate38.4%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.156
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.1%
- 33.9%Third-down rate29.8%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate35.6%
- 1.46Points / drive0.80
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.114EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 11:29 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 9:26 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 7:31 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 5:58 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 14:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TB | Q2 12:39 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 10:34 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TB | Q2 6:54 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 4:55 | 8 | 52 | Missed field goal | 3–3 |
| TB | Q2 1:06 | 2 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q2 0:48 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 0:48 | 5 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q2 0:07 | 2 | 22 | End of half | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TB | Q3 13:34 | 8 | 43 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| CHI | Q3 9:23 | 9 | 27 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| TB | Q3 4:27 | 7 | 53 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| CHI | Q3 0:17 | 9 | 25 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| TB | Q4 10:02 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 10–13 |
| CHI | Q4 8:04 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 10–13 |
| TB | Q4 5:01 | 7 | 40 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| CHI | Q4 2:00 | 6 | 8 | End of half | 10–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 12/19 | 91 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 20/34 | 165 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 20 | 67 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Marlon Barnes | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 5 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| James Allen | 4 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kaseem Sinceno | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.08
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.90