2000 · Week 12
Final
TWA Dome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
STL -5.5
Total
56
Model margin
-0.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 10:21 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 9:42 | 1 | 19 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q1 9:35 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q1 7:16 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q1 5:09 | 8 | 39 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LA | Q1 0:43 | 15 | 50 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| WAS | Q2 6:45 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| LA | Q2 1:50 | 1 | 64 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| WAS | Q2 1:31 | 5 | 60 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 58 | Touchdown | 19–13 |
| LA | Q3 9:19 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 19–20 |
| WAS | Q3 5:13 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 19–20 |
| LA | Q3 3:05 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 19–20 |
| WAS | Q3 2:13 | 4 | 44 | Touchdown | 25–20 |
| LA | Q3 0:25 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 25–20 |
| WAS | Q3 0:25 | 6 | 36 | Field goal | 28–20 |
| LA | Q4 11:43 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 28–20 |
| WAS | Q4 11:30 | 4 | 13 | Field goal | 31–20 |
| LA | Q4 10:38 | 9 | 39 | Turnover | 31–20 |
| WAS | Q4 5:38 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 33–20 |
| LA | Q4 3:49 | 1 | -1 | Safety | 33–20 |
| WAS | Q4 3:44 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 33–20 |
| LA | Q4 1:51 | 6 | 73 | Turnover on downs | 33–20 |
| WAS | Q4 0:54 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 33–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 24/34 | 269 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 19 | 85 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jeff George | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 5 | 6 | 96 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 3 | 6 | 58 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 5 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| James Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.06
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.92
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.