2000 · Week 12
Final
TWA Dome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
STL -5.5
Total
56
Model margin
-0.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 24/34 | 269 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 19 | 85 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jeff George | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 5 | 6 | 96 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 3 | 6 | 58 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 5 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| James Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.06
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.92
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.