Closing spread
BAL -15
Total
34
Model margin
+9.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.217EPA / play-0.056
- 31.8%Success rate40.2%
- -0.208EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.234EPA / rush-0.052
- 5.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- 28.6%Third-down rate40.7%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
- 0.78Points / drive1.45
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.217
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 8/16 | 108 | 0 | 1 |
| Spergon Wynn | 5/9 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Prentice | 11 | 13 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Jamel White | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 4 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| David Patten | 4 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 12/23 | 169 | 2 | 1 |
| Tony Banks | 2/3 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 30 | 170 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Priest Holmes | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 2 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Billy Davis | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
74.2%
Expected total
40.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.88