2000 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Doug Pederson

7·44

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Trent Dilfer

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -15

Total

34

Model margin

+9.9est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.217EPA / play-0.056
  • 31.8%Success rate40.2%
  • -0.208EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.234EPA / rush-0.052
  • 5.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • 28.6%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
  • 0.78Points / drive1.45
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
  • +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.217

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
BALQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:12486Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 10:301366Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 4:0637Punt7–7
BALQ1 2:4430Punt7–7
BALQ1 2:15744Touchdown7–14
CLEQ2 13:403-17Punt7–20
BALQ2 11:46146Touchdown7–21
CLEQ2 11:3934Punt7–21
BALQ2 9:48969Field goal7–24
CLEQ2 4:353-8Punt7–24
BALQ2 3:41244Touchdown7–31
CLEQ2 2:5520Turnover7–31
BALQ2 2:2410Turnover7–31
CLEQ2 2:17617Punt7–31
BALQ2 1:23422End of half7–31
CLEQ3 15:002-1Turnover7–31
BALQ3 14:01418Field goal7–34
CLEQ3 11:5245Punt7–34
BALQ3 10:341046Field goal7–37
CLEQ3 5:013-4Punt7–37
BALQ3 3:4534Punt7–37
CLEQ3 2:08619Punt7–37
BALQ4 14:04977Turnover7–37
CLEQ4 9:264-6Punt7–37
BALQ4 6:5336Touchdown7–44
CLEQ4 5:2334Punt7–44
BALQ4 3:1734Punt7–44
CLEQ4 1:0436End of half7–44

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Pederson8/1610801
Spergon Wynn5/93000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Prentice11131.21
Jamel White4123.00
Doug Pederson231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson46850
Mark Campbell23250
David Patten47230
Travis Prentice1130
Dennis Northcutt0300
Jamel White12-20

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer12/2316921
Tony Banks2/34500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis301705.72
Priest Holmes17643.81
Trent Dilfer2105.00
Pat Johnson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Stokley46680
Pat Johnson24541
Qadry Ismail35390
Billy Davis11280
Shannon Sharpe25170
Ben Coates0100
Jamal Lewis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +156.7%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

74.2%

Expected total

40.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.88