Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play-0.051
- 45.4%Success rate40.0%
- +0.171EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.025EPA / rush-0.089
- 9.9%Explosive rate6.6%
- 44.1%Third-down rate40.9%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate52.9%
- 1.79Points / drive1.33
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.030EPA / play allowed+0.074
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. SEA are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 15/31 | 244 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 30 | 195 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 78 | 26.0 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| KaRon Coleman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 4 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 3 | 3 | 73 | 1 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 20/42 | 226 | 1 | 2 |
| Brock Huard | 3/6 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 9 | 13 | 126 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 7 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Derrick Mayes | 2 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Karsten Bailey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
6.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.22
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.57