2000 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Gus Frerotte

38·31

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Brock Huard

Husky Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.086EPA / play-0.051
  • 45.4%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.171EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.025EPA / rush-0.089
  • 9.9%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 44.1%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate52.9%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.33
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.030EPA / play allowed+0.074

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. SEA are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6SEA @ DEN14–17DEN
2024 · W1DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2022 · W1DEN @ SEA16–17SEA
2018 · W1SEA @ DEN24–27DEN
2014 · W3DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2013 · playoffsSEA @ DEN43–8SEA
2010 · W2SEA @ DEN14–31DEN
2006 · W13SEA @ DEN23–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:12739Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:2931Punt0–0
DENQ1 7:59619Punt0–0
SEAQ1 4:52643Punt0–0
DENQ1 2:021057Opp touchdown0–7
SEAQ2 11:3900Opp touchdown0–7
DENQ2 11:39959Field goal3–7
SEAQ2 6:33981Touchdown3–14
DENQ2 2:54681Touchdown10–14
SEAQ2 1:36626Punt10–14
DENQ2 0:121-2End of half10–14
DENQ3 15:0033Punt10–14
SEAQ3 13:55431Turnover10–14
DENQ3 12:111072Touchdown17–14
SEAQ3 6:571120Turnover17–20
DENQ3 2:1911Opp touchdown17–21
SEAQ3 2:1200Opp touchdown17–21
DENQ3 2:1200Field goal17–21
SEAQ3 2:0237Field goal17–24
DENQ3 0:2710Turnover17–24
SEAQ3 0:0849Turnover on downs17–24
DENQ4 14:10672Touchdown24–24
SEAQ4 12:3730Punt24–24
DENQ4 11:35950Turnover24–24
SEAQ4 6:3420Opp touchdown31–24
DENQ4 5:5400Opp touchdown31–24
SEAQ4 5:54696Touchdown31–31
DENQ4 4:02280Touchdown38–31
SEAQ4 3:3430Punt38–31
DENQ4 3:0538Punt38–31
SEAQ4 2:06931Turnover on downs38–31
DENQ4 0:401-1End of half38–31

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gus Frerotte15/3124412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Anderson301956.52
Rod Smith37826.01
Gus Frerotte6233.80
Howard Griffith133.00
KaRon Coleman122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith411820
Desmond Clark33731
Ed McCaffrey36330
Mike Anderson24140
Travis McGriff0100
Billy Miller0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna20/4222612
Brock Huard3/64800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters16774.81
Jon Kitna133.00
Shaun Alexander310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricky Watters9131260
Sean Dawkins79541
Derrick Mayes28490
Darrell Jackson15190
Christian Fauria34160
Karsten Bailey0200
Itula Mili0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

6.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.22
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.57