Closing spread
PK
Total
44
Model margin
+1.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.057
- 40.2%Success rate40.9%
- +0.029EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.120
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.7%
- 38.8%Third-down rate39.7%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate37.3%
- 1.67Points / drive1.31
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.033EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 10:21 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 9:16 | 5 | 31 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| GB | Q1 7:03 | 11 | 42 | Punt | 0–14 |
| CAR | Q1 0:58 | 7 | 36 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| GB | Q2 12:41 | 2 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q2 11:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| GB | Q2 10:25 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q2 7:57 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q2 5:04 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| GB | Q2 4:10 | 5 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| CAR | Q2 2:02 | 6 | 65 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| GB | Q2 1:01 | 7 | 27 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| CAR | Q3 13:50 | 3 | 5 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| GB | Q3 13:05 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 14–24 |
| CAR | Q3 10:08 | 12 | 58 | Punt | 14–24 |
| GB | Q3 4:05 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 14–24 |
| CAR | Q3 0:11 | 9 | 28 | Punt | 14–24 |
| GB | Q4 11:18 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| CAR | Q4 10:37 | 3 | 12 | Touchdown | 14–31 |
| GB | Q4 9:14 | 15 | 72 | Turnover on downs | 14–31 |
| CAR | Q4 4:15 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 14–31 |
| GB | Q4 2:07 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 14–31 |
| CAR | Q4 1:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 31/51 | 267 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 1 |
| De'Mond Parker | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 6 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 9 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 4 | 13 | 43 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 2 | 32 | 1 |
| Charles Lee | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 4 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 22/37 | 243 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Dameyune Craig | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bates | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 11 | 17 | 131 | 2 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Casey Crawford | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Karl Hankton | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Bates | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dameyune Craig | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Iheanyi Uwaezuoke | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.26