Closing spread
KC -3
Total
41
Model margin
+5.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
6.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SD are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Moon | 12/31 | 130 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble Anders | 16 | 20 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Warren Moon | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 4 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Kimble Anders | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Sylvester Morris | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
6.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.