Closing spread
KC -3
Total
41
Model margin
+5.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
6.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:04 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:37 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:10 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:34 | 6 | 49 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| KC | Q1 4:23 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q1 2:52 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 13:12 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 9:21 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 8:04 | 6 | 8 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| LAC | Q2 4:32 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–14 |
| KC | Q2 2:08 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LAC | Q2 1:31 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 2 | -5 | Opp touchdown | 13–14 |
| KC | Q3 13:58 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 13–14 |
| LAC | Q3 13:58 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 13–14 |
| KC | Q3 11:45 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 13–14 |
| LAC | Q3 10:18 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| KC | Q3 9:18 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–14 |
| LAC | Q3 8:18 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| KC | Q3 8:11 | 4 | 2 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| LAC | Q3 6:35 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–14 |
| KC | Q3 4:31 | 5 | 54 | Field goal | 16–14 |
| LAC | Q3 1:51 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 16–14 |
| KC | Q3 0:03 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 16–14 |
| LAC | Q4 13:20 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 16–14 |
| KC | Q4 11:35 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 16–14 |
| LAC | Q4 8:16 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 16–14 |
| KC | Q4 5:22 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 16–14 |
| LAC | Q4 3:38 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 16–17 |
| KC | Q4 2:14 | 8 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 16–17 |
| LAC | Q4 1:10 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 16–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Moon | 12/31 | 130 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble Anders | 16 | 20 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Warren Moon | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 4 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Kimble Anders | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Sylvester Morris | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
6.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.