Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play+0.123
- 38.4%Success rate45.8%
- +0.081EPA / dropback+0.249
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- 34.3%Third-down rate46.8%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 1.52Points / drive2.04
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.111EPA / play allowed+0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 22/33 | 183 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Johnson | 21 | 60 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Autry Denson | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autry Denson | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 7 | 10 | 41 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 2 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| J.J. Johnson | 5 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 16/34 | 209 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 118 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 4 | 10 | 74 | 2 |
| Edgerrin James | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.9%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.99
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.81