Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
48
Model margin
+0.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.074
- 44.7%Success rate41.5%
- +0.184EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.061
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- 46.0%Third-down rate36.8%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 2.14Points / drive1.35
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.7%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 4-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 15/22 | 205 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 21 | 148 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 7 | 9 | 144 | 2 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 1 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 30/43 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 12 | 100 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Tucker | 6 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 5 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 6 | 9 | 45 | 1 |
| James McKnight | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Brazzell | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.46