Closing spread
STL -13.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. STL are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 14:56 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:15 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:45 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 4:32 | 4 | 46 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 2:43 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 1:32 | 3 | 19 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 0:08 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 13:37 | 6 | 46 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 10:28 | 10 | 41 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 7:19 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| LA | Q2 1:55 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 21–10 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 24–10 |
| LA | Q3 9:27 | 9 | 55 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| NO | Q3 6:50 | 7 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 24–17 |
| LA | Q3 2:36 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–17 |
| NO | Q3 2:12 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 24–17 |
| LA | Q3 1:05 | 3 | -13 | Turnover | 24–17 |
| NO | Q4 14:53 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 24–17 |
| LA | Q4 14:05 | 5 | 26 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| NO | Q4 11:06 | 13 | 33 | Touchdown | 31–24 |
| LA | Q4 3:50 | 4 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 31–24 |
| NO | Q4 2:48 | 4 | 12 | Missed field goal | 31–24 |
| LA | Q4 2:21 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 31–24 |
| NO | Q4 2:10 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 31–24 |
| LA | Q4 0:15 | 3 | 21 | End of half | 31–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 17/29 | 190 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerald Moore | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Fred McAfee | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 7 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Brian Milne | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.30
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.69
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.