2000 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

31·7

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Dave Brown

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NYG -6

Total

39

Model margin

-1.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.016EPA / play-0.126
  • 40.1%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback-0.066
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.243
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 39.9%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.04
  • 2.1%Turnover rate4.0%
  • -0.065EPA / play allowed+0.104

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. ARI are 12-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:53965Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 9:32413Punt7–0
NYGQ1 7:41417Punt7–0
ARIQ1 5:2538Punt7–0
NYGQ1 3:5935Punt7–0
ARIQ1 3:10416Punt7–0
NYGQ1 0:471172Touchdown14–0
ARIQ2 10:15841Turnover14–0
NYGQ2 6:31624Punt14–0
ARIQ2 3:3785Punt14–0
NYGQ2 0:48216End of half14–0
NYGQ3 15:0031Punt14–0
ARIQ3 12:56753Turnover on downs14–0
NYGQ3 9:14958Touchdown21–0
ARIQ3 6:24988Touchdown21–7
NYGQ3 2:011280Touchdown28–7
ARIQ4 10:0610Turnover28–7
NYGQ4 9:47629Field goal31–7
ARIQ4 6:4948Turnover on downs31–7
NYGQ4 5:4449Turnover on downs31–7
ARIQ4 4:36916Turnover31–7
NYGQ4 3:203-3Turnover31–7
ARIQ4 2:15514Turnover31–7
NYGQ4 1:032-2End of half31–7

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins20/3023210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ron Dayne24853.51
Tiki Barber12322.71
Amani Toomer23115.51
Jason Garrett2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Jurevicius58710
Amani Toomer47580
Tiki Barber45520
Pete Mitchell33280
Ron Dixon12130
Howard Cross1160
Dan Campbell1151
Greg Comella13-10

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dave Brown18/3619211
Chris Greisen2/31900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman13775.90
Thomas Jones2115.50
Dave Brown100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman1011961
Frank Sanders39440
David Boston16320
Terry Hardy22130
MarTay Jenkins13130
Chris Gedney1260
Thomas Jones1140
Mac Cody1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.4%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.81
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.51
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.73