Closing spread
NYG -6
Total
39
Model margin
-1.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.126
- 40.1%Success rate39.0%
- +0.137EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.243
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- 39.9%Third-down rate36.7%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.73Points / drive1.04
- 2.1%Turnover rate4.0%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed+0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. ARI are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 20/30 | 232 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 24 | 85 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Amani Toomer | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 1 |
| Jason Garrett | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Jurevicius | 5 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 4 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Brown | 18/36 | 192 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Greisen | 2/3 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Dave Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 10 | 11 | 96 | 1 |
| Frank Sanders | 3 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Gedney | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.51
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.73