2000 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

23·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Jeff George

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

WAS -7

Total

37

Model margin

+3.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • -0.003EPA / play-0.027
  • 40.3%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.058
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.148
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.1%
  • 41.3%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 52.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.30
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.093

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
WASQ1 15:00685Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 12:22615Punt0–7
PHIQ1 9:00211Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 8:16913Punt7–7
PHIQ1 3:4533Punt7–7
WASQ1 2:1831Punt7–7
PHIQ1 0:451581Field goal10–7
WASQ2 8:13725Punt10–7
PHIQ2 4:4710Turnover10–7
WASQ2 4:38424Touchdown10–14
PHIQ2 3:08527Turnover10–14
WASQ2 1:06517End of half10–14
PHIQ3 15:0034Punt10–14
WASQ3 13:573-2Punt10–14
PHIQ3 12:35619Punt10–14
WASQ3 9:1610Turnover16–14
PHIQ3 9:07121Touchdown17–14
WASQ3 9:031352Field goal17–17
PHIQ3 2:161157Field goal20–17
WASQ4 11:431553Field goal20–20
PHIQ4 5:42654Field goal23–20
WASQ4 3:00658Missed field goal23–20
PHIQ4 1:163-3End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb19/3013711
Brian Mitchell0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donovan McNabb1112511.41
Darnell Autry9252.80
Stanley Pritchett5183.60
Cecil Martin133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Lewis611530
Darnell Autry23240
Torrance Small12180
Charles Johnson36170
Na Brown1290
Jeff Thomason2271
Luther Broughton1160
Todd Pinkston1160
Cecil Martin1100
Donovan McNabb0100
Stanley Pritchett11-30

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff George25/4328820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Skip Hicks10222.20
Adrian Murrell7142.00
Jeff George284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Thrash591211
Irving Fryar47500
Stephen Alexander410391
Skip Hicks22320
Adrian Murrell34130
Albert Connell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.06
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.69