2000 · Week 13 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -7
Total
37
Model margin
+3.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play-0.027
- 40.3%Success rate41.1%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.148
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- 41.3%Third-down rate39.0%
- 52.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.62Points / drive1.30
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.093
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/30 | 137 | 1 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 11 | 125 | 11.4 | 1 |
| Darnell Autry | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Lewis | 6 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| Darnell Autry | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 25/43 | 288 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skip Hicks | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jeff George | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Thrash | 5 | 9 | 121 | 1 |
| Irving Fryar | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 4 | 10 | 39 | 1 |
| Skip Hicks | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.06
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.69