Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
34
Model margin
-0.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play-0.157
- 38.6%Success rate34.1%
- -0.014EPA / dropback-0.180
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.129
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- 37.4%Third-down rate34.8%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate34.6%
- 1.37Points / drive0.82
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.119EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 11/20 | 182 | 3 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 1/2 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 23 | 93 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 4 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Bobby Shaw | 2 | 6 | 66 | 1 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Matt Cushing | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 10/20 | 129 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 23 | 128 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Brandon Bennett | 5 | 55 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Farmer | 3 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 8 | 25 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.14