NFL Intelligence

2000 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

48·28

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Akili Smith

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PIT -4

Total

Model margin

-0.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

Bengals
Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals

-0.044EPA / play-0.157
38.6%Success rate34.1%
-0.014EPA / dropback-0.180
-0.076EPA / rush-0.129
8.9%Explosive rate8.3%
37.4%Third-down rate34.8%
49.8%Red-zone TD rate34.6%
1.37Points / drive0.82
1.6%Turnover rate2.8%
-0.119EPA / play allowed+0.014

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
Season	Matchup	Score	Winner
2026 · W3	CIN @ PIT	27–30	PIT
2025 · W11	CIN @ PIT	12–34	PIT
2025 · W7	PIT @ CIN	31–33	CIN
2024 · W18	CIN @ PIT	19–17	CIN
2024 · W13	PIT @ CIN	44–38	PIT
2023 · W16	CIN @ PIT	11–34	PIT
2023 · W12	PIT @ CIN	16–10	PIT
2022 · W11	CIN @ PIT	37–30	CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
Ball	Start	Plays	Yards	Result	PIT–CIN
PIT	Q1 15:00	6	78	Touchdown	7–0
CIN	Q1 12:06	5	67	Touchdown	7–7
PIT	Q1 10:04	13	80	Touchdown	14–7
CIN	Q1 3:43	10	66	Touchdown	14–14
PIT	Q2 13:56	3	2	Punt	14–14
PIT	Q2 11:48	6	40	Touchdown	21–14
CIN	Q2 9:00	6	46	Punt	21–14
PIT	Q2 5:53	14	61	Field goal	24–14
CIN	Q2 0:16	1	-2	End of half	24–14
CIN	Q3 15:00	10	65	Touchdown	24–21
PIT	Q3 9:46	6	62	Touchdown	31–21
CIN	Q3 6:16	4	15	Punt	31–21
PIT	Q3 4:11	4	19	Punt	31–21
CIN	Q3 2:21	3	-11	Turnover	37–21
PIT	Q3 1:36	1	7	Touchdown	38–21
CIN	Q3 1:31	4	7	Opp touchdown	45–21
PIT	Q3 0:00	0	0	Opp touchdown	45–21
CIN	Q3 0:00	6	6	Punt	45–21
PIT	Q4 12:06	3	-8	Punt	45–21
CIN	Q4 9:57	3	4	Punt	45–21
PIT	Q4 8:28	3	1	Punt	45–21
CIN	Q4 6:45	9	59	Touchdown	45–28
PIT	Q4 2:50	4	32	Field goal	48–28
CIN	Q4 1:49	5	-13	Turnover on downs	48–28
PIT	Q4 0:43	2	-2	End of half	48–28

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Kordell Stewart	11/20	182	3	0
Kent Graham	1/2	27	0	0

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg	TD
Jerome Bettis	23	93	4.0	1
Hines Ward	2	38	19.0	0
Kordell Stewart	6	31	5.2	1
Richard Huntley	2	20	10.0	0
Amos Zereoue	3	5	1.7	0
Kent Graham	2	-2	-1.0	0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Hines Ward	4	7	70	1
Bobby Shaw	2	6	66	1
Troy Edwards	1	1	27	0
Mark Bruener	2	3	25	1
Courtney Hawkins	1	3	17	0
Matt Cushing	1	1	5	0
Jerome Bettis	1	1	-1	0

Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Akili Smith	10/20	129	1	0

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg	TD
Corey Dillon	23	128	5.6	2
Brandon Bennett	5	55	11.0	1
Nicolas Luchey	5	16	3.2	0
Akili Smith	6	15	2.5	0
Peter Warrick	2	-5	-2.5	0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Danny Farmer	3	3	59	0
Craig Yeast	2	3	37	0
Peter Warrick	3	8	25	1
Brandon Bennett	2	4	8	0
Nicolas Luchey	0	2	0	0

Where this game is likely to land

Model
Smooth (normal)
Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
Home-field advantage+2.56
Quarterback adjustment0.00
Rest differential0.00
Expected margin-0.14