Closing spread
JAX -14.5
Total
39
Model margin
+10.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.217EPA / play+0.010
- 31.8%Success rate41.4%
- -0.208EPA / dropback+0.066
- -0.234EPA / rush-0.071
- 5.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 28.6%Third-down rate42.8%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 0.78Points / drive1.87
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spergon Wynn | 5/16 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Thompson | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Prentice | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Kevin Thompson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 15/31 | 165 | 1 | 0 |
| Jamie Martin | 1/2 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 30 | 181 | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shyrone Stith | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Anthony Johnson | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Quinn | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 6 | 13 | 104 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| R.Jay Soward | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
75.6%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.52