2000 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Spergon Wynn

0·48

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

JAX -14.5

Total

39

Model margin

+10.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.217EPA / play+0.010
  • 31.8%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.208EPA / dropback+0.066
  • -0.234EPA / rush-0.071
  • 5.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 28.6%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 0.78Points / drive1.87
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
  • +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.022

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CLE @ JAX10–34JAX
2024 · W2CLE @ JAX18–13CLE
2023 · W14JAX @ CLE27–31CLE
2020 · W12CLE @ JAX27–25CLE
2017 · W11JAX @ CLE19–7JAX
2014 · W7CLE @ JAX6–24JAX
2013 · W13JAX @ CLE32–28JAX
2011 · W11JAX @ CLE10–14CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001042Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 10:44619Punt0–3
JAXQ1 8:29620Punt0–3
CLEQ1 6:0435Punt0–3
JAXQ1 4:3531Punt0–3
CLEQ1 3:383-8Punt0–3
JAXQ1 1:54654Touchdown0–10
CLEQ2 14:5634Punt0–10
JAXQ2 12:48612Punt0–10
CLEQ2 10:0048Punt0–10
JAXQ2 8:081057Field goal0–13
CLEQ2 3:0934Punt0–13
JAXQ2 2:23764Touchdown0–20
CLEQ2 0:2811End of half0–20
CLEQ3 15:003-1Punt0–20
JAXQ3 13:31620Punt0–20
CLEQ3 11:2033Punt0–20
JAXQ3 10:24648Touchdown0–27
CLEQ3 7:451-12Turnover0–33
JAXQ3 7:2618Touchdown0–34
CLEQ3 7:2055Punt0–34
JAXQ3 5:04674Touchdown0–41
CLEQ3 1:333-3Punt0–41
JAXQ4 14:5135Punt0–41
CLEQ4 13:18516Punt0–41
JAXQ4 10:17834Touchdown0–48
CLEQ4 5:27312Punt0–48
JAXQ4 3:03510End of half0–48

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spergon Wynn5/161700
Doug Pederson1/1800
Kevin Thompson1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Prentice10333.30
Jamel White7294.10
Kevin Thompson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamel White22110
Kevin Johnson1680
David Patten1380
Travis Prentice2260
Mark Campbell0100
Dennis Northcutt1400

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell15/3116510
Jamie Martin1/25300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor301816.03
Shyrone Stith11272.51
Anthony Johnson22412.00
Mark Brunell2147.01
Jonathan Quinn2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith6131040
Keenan McCardell48461
Kyle Brady36410
R.Jay Soward22210
Fred Taylor1160
Anthony Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.56.6%2.3%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.6%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

75.6%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+10.52