2000 · Week 14
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
TB -10
Total
37
Model margin
+5.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.016
- 41.5%Success rate39.8%
- -0.085EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.086
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- 36.8%Third-down rate33.9%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 1.35Points / drive1.46
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.114
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 36.8 points. TB are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 13:48 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–9 |
| TB | Q1 10:53 | 1 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q1 10:39 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q1 7:39 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q1 4:00 | 3 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 0–17 |
| TB | Q1 3:07 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–17 |
| DAL | Q1 3:07 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–17 |
| TB | Q1 0:49 | 10 | 45 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| DAL | Q2 10:37 | 7 | 32 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| TB | Q2 6:21 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 0–20 |
| DAL | Q2 3:59 | 9 | 19 | Punt | 0–20 |
| DAL | Q2 1:06 | 3 | 9 | Missed field goal | 0–20 |
| TB | Q2 0:33 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–20 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–20 |
| DAL | Q3 12:51 | 16 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| TB | Q3 5:58 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–20 |
| DAL | Q3 3:05 | 9 | 54 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| TB | Q4 14:23 | 11 | 93 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| DAL | Q4 7:54 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 7–27 |
| TB | Q4 5:00 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 7–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 16/30 | 158 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Wright | 1/3 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Michael Wiley | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wane McGarity | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Brazzell | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Damon Hodge | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 9/15 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 22 | 210 | 9.5 | 2 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.34