2000 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

17·24

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIN -9

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • -0.143EPA / play+0.102
  • 36.6%Success rate44.7%
  • -0.141EPA / dropback+0.184
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.026
  • 6.7%Explosive rate10.6%
  • 31.8%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 47.8%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.23Points / drive2.14
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.110EPA / play allowed+0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
DETQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:44834Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 7:3939Punt0–7
MINQ1 5:251266Touchdown0–14
DETQ2 14:56843Turnover0–14
MINQ2 10:1635Punt0–14
DETQ2 8:48626Punt0–14
MINQ2 5:4136Punt0–14
DETQ2 4:17626Field goal3–14
MINQ2 1:12758Field goal3–17
DETQ2 0:04123Turnover3–17
MINQ3 15:00520Punt3–17
DETQ3 12:10736Punt3–17
MINQ3 7:49626Turnover3–17
DETQ3 4:43837Punt3–17
MINQ3 0:0520Turnover3–17
DETQ4 14:5129Touchdown10–17
MINQ4 13:59847Punt10–17
DETQ4 9:55735Punt10–17
MINQ4 6:1232Punt10–17
DETQ4 5:1855Turnover on downs10–23
MINQ4 3:15143Touchdown10–24
DETQ4 3:041085Touchdown17–24
MINQ4 0:131-2End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Stoney Case23/3323011
Charlie Batch2/31600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart15674.51
Stoney Case66210.30
Charlie Batch133.00
Mario Bates133.00
Sedrick Irvin111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Foster8101061
Johnnie Morton46530
Herman Moore35210
Sedrick Irvin23190
David Sloan23170
Desmond Howard12100
Walter Rasby1160
Mario Bates2250
Brian Stablein1250

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper19/3216012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Robert Smith171156.82
Daunte Culpepper6254.20
Jimmy Kleinsasser144.00
Moe Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cris Carter712451
Johnny McWilliams34280
Randy Moss39260
Chris Walsh22210
Moe Williams22140
Matt Hatchette11130
Robert Smith11130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.02