Closing spread
MIN -9
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.143EPA / play+0.102
- 36.6%Success rate44.7%
- -0.141EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.026
- 6.7%Explosive rate10.6%
- 31.8%Third-down rate46.0%
- 47.8%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.23Points / drive2.14
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoney Case | 23/33 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 2/3 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Stoney Case | 6 | 62 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Foster | 8 | 10 | 106 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 19/32 | 160 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 17 | 115 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 7 | 12 | 45 | 1 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.02