Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
+1.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.144
- 40.2%Success rate38.4%
- +0.029EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.156
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.1%
- 38.8%Third-down rate29.8%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate35.6%
- 1.67Points / drive0.80
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.033EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 19/31 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 2 |
| De'Mond Parker | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 6 | 9 | 119 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 4 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Bubba Franks | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 22/43 | 233 | 0 | 2 |
| Mark Hartsell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 11 | 12 | 93 | 0 |
| Kaseem Sinceno | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 3 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Dez White | 2 | 9 | 20 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.08
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.57