2000 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

28·6

Bears

Chicago

QB Shane Matthews

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

39

Model margin

+1.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • -0.010EPA / play-0.144
  • 40.2%Success rate38.4%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.156
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.1%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate29.8%
  • 53.5%Red-zone TD rate35.6%
  • 1.67Points / drive0.80
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.033EPA / play allowed-0.018

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
GBQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:421139Punt0–0
GBQ1 6:341285Touchdown7–0
CHIQ2 14:561270Field goal7–3
GBQ2 8:47864Touchdown14–3
CHIQ2 4:23628Punt14–3
GBQ2 1:3839Punt14–3
CHIQ2 0:11128End of half14–3
CHIQ3 15:0032Punt14–3
GBQ3 13:15313Punt14–3
CHIQ3 11:5235Punt14–3
GBQ3 10:501081Touchdown21–3
CHIQ3 6:03519Punt21–3
GBQ3 3:321033Punt21–3
CHIQ4 14:40314Opp touchdown28–3
GBQ4 14:0000Opp touchdown28–3
CHIQ4 14:00513Punt28–3
GBQ4 12:3941Punt28–3
CHIQ4 11:21424Field goal28–6
GBQ4 9:0500Turnover on downs28–6
CHIQ4 9:01716Turnover on downs28–6
GBQ4 7:0736Punt28–6
CHIQ4 5:35422Turnover28–6
GBQ4 4:1836Punt28–6
CHIQ4 3:13650Turnover on downs28–6
GBQ4 1:293-3End of half28–6

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre19/3122510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green20693.52
De'Mond Parker382.70
Antonio Freeman133.00
Matt Hasselbeck1-1-1.00
Danny Wuerffel2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bill Schroeder691190
Antonio Freeman47511
Bubba Franks12200
Ahman Green33160
Ryan Wetnight1290
Donald Driver0400

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews22/4323302
Mark Hartsell0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen17804.70
Shane Matthews3237.70
Glyn Milburn166.00
D'Wayne Bates1-2-2.00
Eddie Kennison1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Allen1112930
Kaseem Sinceno47470
Marty Booker16410
Eddie Kennison37220
Dez White29200
Curtis Enis11100
Macey Brooks0100
Glyn Milburn0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.08
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.57