2000 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

17·27

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+0.7est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJets
  • +0.123EPA / play-0.073
  • 45.8%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.249EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.161
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 46.8%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 62.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.29
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.5%
  • +0.005EPA / play allowed-0.101

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001278Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 8:4732Punt0–7
NYJQ1 7:34670Touchdown0–14
INDQ1 4:35420Punt0–14
NYJQ1 2:17553Missed field goal0–14
INDQ2 14:4833Punt0–14
NYJQ2 13:52662Field goal0–17
INDQ2 10:25520Punt0–17
NYJQ2 8:02920Punt0–17
INDQ2 2:451046Turnover0–17
NYJQ2 0:53653Field goal0–20
INDQ3 15:00856Field goal3–20
NYJQ3 12:22633Punt3–20
INDQ3 8:0933Punt3–20
NYJQ3 6:55610Punt3–20
INDQ3 3:19965Touchdown10–20
NYJQ3 1:011053Turnover10–20
INDQ4 10:36354Touchdown17–20
NYJQ4 9:50932Punt17–20
INDQ4 5:0110Turnover17–20
NYJQ4 4:53420Touchdown17–27
INDQ4 3:17632Turnover17–27
NYJQ4 2:0237Punt17–27
INDQ4 1:341274End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning27/5133922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James11494.50
Peyton Manning100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrence Wilkins7101091
Marvin Harrison814901
Jerome Pathon610730
Edgerrin James35310
Marcus Pollard23260
Ken Dilger14100
Isaac Jones0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde26/4129521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin302036.81
Bernie Parmalee252.50
Vinny Testaverde133.00
Dwight Stone1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Windrell Hayes46840
Wayne Chrebet812771
Dedric Ward36311
Anthony Becht22190
Curtis Martin4590

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.66