Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.123EPA / play-0.073
- 45.8%Success rate39.6%
- +0.249EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.161
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- 46.8%Third-down rate37.5%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.04Points / drive1.29
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.5%
- +0.005EPA / play allowed-0.101
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/51 | 339 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrence Wilkins | 7 | 10 | 109 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison | 8 | 14 | 90 | 1 |
| Jerome Pathon | 6 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Isaac Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 26/41 | 295 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 30 | 203 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dwight Stone | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Windrell Hayes | 4 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 8 | 12 | 77 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 3 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.66