2000 · Week 14

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Elvis Grbac

24·30

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

Foxboro Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NE -1

Total

41

Model margin

+1.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.079
  • 41.2%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.123EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.195
  • 9.4%Explosive rate5.5%
  • 36.7%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.42Points / drive1.30
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
  • +0.025EPA / play allowed+0.010

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–7 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15KC @ NE27–17KC
2020 · W4NE @ KC10–26KC
2019 · W14KC @ NE23–16KC
2018 · playoffsNE @ KC37–31NE
2018 · W6KC @ NE40–43NE
2017 · W1KC @ NE42–27KC
2015 · playoffsKC @ NE20–27NE
2014 · W4NE @ KC14–41KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–NE
NEQ1 15:00512Field goal0–3
KCQ1 12:18845Field goal3–3
NEQ1 8:271572Touchdown3–10
KCQ1 1:2936Punt3–10
NEQ2 14:50519Punt3–10
KCQ2 12:43614Punt3–10
NEQ2 10:21439Punt9–10
KCQ2 8:49181Touchdown10–10
NEQ2 8:3931Punt10–10
KCQ2 6:14615Punt10–10
NEQ2 2:56532Touchdown10–17
KCQ2 2:00421Punt10–17
NEQ2 1:01636Field goal10–20
KCQ3 15:0036Punt10–20
NEQ3 13:4830Punt10–20
KCQ3 12:0937Turnover10–20
NEQ3 10:51863Touchdown10–27
KCQ3 7:09417Turnover10–27
NEQ3 6:04521Missed field goal10–27
KCQ3 3:031273Touchdown17–27
NEQ4 13:43936Punt17–27
KCQ4 9:34414Turnover17–27
NEQ4 8:5332Field goal17–30
KCQ4 7:2333Punt17–30
NEQ4 6:30721Turnover17–30
KCQ4 4:26244Touchdown24–30
NEQ4 3:58614Punt24–30
KCQ4 1:02772End of half24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac25/4635031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kimble Anders6193.20
Elvis Grbac4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez11161471
Derrick Alexander5131161
Kevin Lockett22341
Sylvester Morris39170
Kimble Anders1140

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe33/4828220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Faulk22522.41
Terry Glenn23718.50
Patrick Pass294.50
Drew Bledsoe351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Brown12131191
Jermaine Wiggins55411
Kevin Faulk56320
Rod Rutledge33270
Curtis Jackson24170
Terry Glenn28150
Tony Simmons11140
Tony Carter24100
Patrick Pass1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.63