Closing spread
NE -1
Total
41
Model margin
+1.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.079
- 41.2%Success rate38.3%
- +0.123EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.195
- 9.4%Explosive rate5.5%
- 36.7%Third-down rate35.1%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.42Points / drive1.30
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.025EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 25/46 | 350 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble Anders | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 11 | 16 | 147 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 5 | 13 | 116 | 1 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| Sylvester Morris | 3 | 9 | 17 | 0 |
| Kimble Anders | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 33/48 | 282 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 22 | 52 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Terry Glenn | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 12 | 13 | 119 | 1 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 5 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Curtis Jackson | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 2 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.63