2000 · Week 14 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 30°F · wind 14mph
Closing spread
WAS -6
Total
38
Model margin
+2.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.027
- 40.1%Success rate41.1%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.148
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.1%
- 39.9%Third-down rate39.0%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.73Points / drive1.30
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.093
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 18/29 | 164 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 14 | 82 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 18 | 57 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Jurevicius | 6 | 9 | 83 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 10/18 | 143 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 14/29 | 126 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Thrash | 4 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 5 | 11 | 55 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 4 | 9 | 55 | 1 |
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.15