2000 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

9·7

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 30°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

WAS -6

Total

38

Model margin

+2.1est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.016EPA / play-0.027
  • 40.1%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.058
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.148
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.1%
  • 39.9%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.30
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.093

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
NYGQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:36411Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:25829Punt0–0
WASQ1 6:421264Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ2 14:14937Turnover on downs0–0
WASQ2 8:4731Punt0–0
NYGQ2 7:42143Turnover0–0
WASQ2 7:3030Punt0–0
NYGQ2 6:31618Field goal3–0
WASQ2 3:3230Punt3–0
NYGQ2 2:57644Field goal6–0
WASQ2 0:0410End of half6–0
WASQ3 15:00419Punt6–0
NYGQ3 12:29414Turnover6–0
WASQ3 10:2130Turnover6–0
NYGQ3 10:05621Field goal9–0
WASQ3 6:1834Punt9–0
NYGQ3 4:3339Punt9–0
WASQ3 2:45738Punt9–0
NYGQ4 14:10215Turnover9–0
WASQ4 13:23310Turnover9–0
NYGQ4 12:13845Punt9–0
WASQ4 8:021287Touchdown9–7
NYGQ4 4:48617Punt9–7
WASQ4 2:39856Missed field goal9–7
NYGQ4 0:502-1End of half9–7

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins18/2916401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber14825.90
Ron Dayne18573.20
Kerry Collins310.30
Greg Comella111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Jurevicius69830
Tiki Barber45260
Amani Toomer36260
Dan Campbell11110
Pete Mitchell23100
Ron Dixon1470
Ron Dayne1110

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff George10/1814310
Brad Johnson14/2912602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis12292.40
Brad Johnson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Thrash411730
Albert Connell511550
Irving Fryar49551
Stephen Alexander24320
Stephen Davis45210
Adrian Murrell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.15