Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
42
Model margin
+3.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 13:19 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 10:13 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 6:44 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 2:24 | 9 | 37 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 14:11 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:54 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–7 |
| PIT | Q2 13:54 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 11:55 | 6 | 42 | Punt | 10–7 |
| PIT | Q2 8:16 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 6:57 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| PIT | Q2 5:26 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 3:25 | 8 | 82 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| PIT | Q2 1:06 | 3 | 15 | End of half | 17–7 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 16 | 91 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LV | Q3 5:50 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| PIT | Q3 4:09 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LV | Q3 2:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–14 |
| PIT | Q3 0:27 | 4 | 47 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| LV | Q4 14:48 | 5 | 55 | Field goal | 20–21 |
| PIT | Q4 11:38 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 20–21 |
| LV | Q4 7:47 | 9 | 54 | Missed field goal | 20–21 |
| PIT | Q4 3:59 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 20–21 |
| LV | Q4 1:39 | 11 | 54 | Turnover on downs | 20–21 |
| PIT | Q4 0:02 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 20–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 14/23 | 136 | 2 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 1/3 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 24 | 128 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Matt Cushing | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
6.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.