Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
42
Model margin
+3.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 14/23 | 136 | 2 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 1/3 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 24 | 128 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Matt Cushing | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
6.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.