Closing spread
PK
Total
42
Model margin
+1.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.193
- 40.0%Success rate37.5%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.176
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.225
- 6.6%Explosive rate6.1%
- 40.9%Third-down rate29.3%
- 52.9%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.33Points / drive1.06
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.074EPA / play allowed+0.015
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 11:18 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 14–0 |
| SEA | Q1 10:57 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 14–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:57 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:47 | 15 | 46 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| ATL | Q1 2:46 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 17–0 |
| SEA | Q2 13:22 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 17–0 |
| ATL | Q2 9:05 | 11 | 64 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| SEA | Q2 3:13 | 5 | 86 | Touchdown | 24–3 |
| ATL | Q2 1:38 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 24–3 |
| SEA | Q2 0:08 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 24–3 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 16 | Turnover | 24–3 |
| SEA | Q3 12:31 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 27–3 |
| ATL | Q3 11:42 | 6 | 29 | Turnover | 27–3 |
| SEA | Q3 8:56 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 30–3 |
| ATL | Q3 4:19 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 30–10 |
| SEA | Q4 13:48 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 30–10 |
| ATL | Q4 8:32 | 10 | 49 | Turnover | 30–10 |
| SEA | Q4 4:06 | 6 | 18 | End of half | 30–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 25/34 | 252 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 21 | 79 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 6 | 98 | 1 |
| Ricky Watters | 7 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| James Williams | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 17/33 | 233 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 3 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 4 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.94