Closing spread
PK
Total
42
Model margin
+1.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.193
- 40.0%Success rate37.5%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.176
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.225
- 6.6%Explosive rate6.1%
- 40.9%Third-down rate29.3%
- 52.9%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.33Points / drive1.06
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.074EPA / play allowed+0.015
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 25/34 | 252 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 21 | 79 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 6 | 98 | 1 |
| Ricky Watters | 7 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| James Williams | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 17/33 | 233 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 3 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 4 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.94