Closing spread
STL -8
Total
58
Model margin
+1.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 20/30 | 195 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Michael Bates | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 10 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| Michael Bates | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Iheanyi Uwaezuoke | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Casey Crawford | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dameyune Craig | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.