2000 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

13·26

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+3.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • -0.143EPA / play-0.010
  • 36.6%Success rate40.2%
  • -0.141EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.076
  • 6.7%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 31.8%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 47.8%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
  • 1.23Points / drive1.67
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.033

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
GBQ1 15:00729Field goal0–3
DETQ1 10:5938Punt0–3
GBQ1 9:071049Field goal0–6
DETQ1 3:3600Missed field goal0–6
GBQ1 3:2837Missed field goal0–6
DETQ1 1:1736Punt0–6
GBQ2 14:513-2Punt0–6
DETQ2 13:17437Turnover0–6
GBQ2 11:43826Turnover on downs0–6
DETQ2 8:1538Punt0–6
GBQ2 6:2037Punt0–6
DETQ2 5:08735Turnover0–6
GBQ2 1:48514Turnover0–6
DETQ2 0:1310End of half0–6
DETQ3 15:00520Punt0–6
GBQ3 12:33324Turnover0–6
DETQ3 11:22741Field goal3–6
GBQ3 7:3030Punt3–6
DETQ3 6:57614Turnover3–6
GBQ3 4:08935Field goal3–9
DETQ3 0:43621Turnover3–9
GBQ4 14:09624Field goal3–12
DETQ4 11:49755Touchdown10–12
GBQ4 7:04680Touchdown10–19
DETQ4 4:25838Field goal13–19
GBQ4 2:17240Touchdown13–26
DETQ4 1:54510Turnover on downs13–26
GBQ4 1:112-3End of half13–26

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch17/3319003

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart22663.01
Charlie Batch8354.40
Mario Bates122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Germane Crowell38860
Johnnie Morton56560
Herman Moore15140
Walter Rasby22140
James Stewart23120
Mario Bates3550
Larry Foster1330
David Sloan0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre15/3620811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green271184.41
Brett Favre273.50
De'Mond Parker166.00
Matt Hasselbeck2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman512800
Bill Schroeder29640
Bubba Franks12250
Ahman Green47171
Tyrone Davis23130
Donald Driver1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.11