Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.143EPA / play-0.010
- 36.6%Success rate40.2%
- -0.141EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.076
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.6%
- 31.8%Third-down rate38.8%
- 47.8%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 1.23Points / drive1.67
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 17/33 | 190 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 22 | 66 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 3 | 8 | 86 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/36 | 208 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 27 | 118 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 5 | 12 | 80 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 2 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 4 | 7 | 17 | 1 |
| Tyrone Davis | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.11