Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
56.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. STL are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 21/33 | 221 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 7 | 13 | 66 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 5 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.