Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
56.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. STL are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 8:56 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:57 | 4 | 39 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| MIN | Q1 4:54 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 1:40 | 8 | 73 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| MIN | Q2 13:48 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 7:14 | 12 | 71 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| MIN | Q2 1:11 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LA | Q2 0:09 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–20 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 48 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| LA | Q3 11:20 | 6 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–26 |
| MIN | Q3 8:19 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 14–26 |
| LA | Q3 6:41 | 7 | 55 | Touchdown | 14–33 |
| MIN | Q3 4:36 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 21–33 |
| LA | Q3 0:32 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 21–40 |
| MIN | Q4 8:10 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 21–40 |
| LA | Q4 6:35 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–40 |
| MIN | Q4 4:17 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 29–40 |
| LA | Q4 2:27 | 5 | 18 | End of half | 29–40 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 21/33 | 221 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 7 | 13 | 66 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 5 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.