Closing spread
SF -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.086
- 42.1%Success rate42.2%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.195
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.115
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- 42.9%Third-down rate41.2%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.53Points / drive1.90
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.071EPA / play allowed+0.092
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. SF are 10-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 12/29 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 11 | 108 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 18 | 80 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 5 | 11 | 105 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 8 | 22 | 1 |
| Keith Poole | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 25/38 | 305 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 2 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 9 | 129 | 1 |
| Jerry Rice | 6 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 4 | 6 | 24 | 1 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.30
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.62