Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 12–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. OAK are 10-8-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:51 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 11:26 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:25 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:29 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:17 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:39 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:26 | 11 | 68 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q2 14:16 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:42 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 12:31 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:31 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 10:12 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 6:01 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 3:15 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:09 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:17 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 0–21 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 43 | Punt | 0–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 10:15 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LV | Q3 8:48 | 5 | 26 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 6:20 | 6 | 20 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| LV | Q3 3:40 | 6 | 60 | — | 0–21 |
| LV | Q4 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| LV | Q4 15:00 | 2 | 3 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:16 | 8 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 0–28 |
| LV | Q4 11:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–28 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:03 | 7 | 31 | Turnover | 0–28 |
| LV | Q4 7:06 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 0–31 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:50 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| LV | Q4 0:24 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 14/25 | 149 | 0 | 2 |
| Ray Lucas | 6/14 | 99 | 0 | 2 |
| Chad Pennington | 2/5 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 17 | 11 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 3 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 3 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Dwight Stone | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Windrell Hayes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.91
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.