Closing spread
BAL -13.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BAL are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:44 | 16 | 60 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 3:35 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 2:03 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 0:57 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q2 13:25 | 8 | 36 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 9:54 | 5 | 2 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q2 8:11 | 6 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 4:16 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| BAL | Q2 3:07 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 2:19 | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q2 0:48 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q3 12:14 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q3 11:29 | 2 | 3 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q3 10:47 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–17 |
| BAL | Q3 10:13 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 3–17 |
| BAL | Q3 6:45 | 3 | 22 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| LAC | Q3 4:51 | 18 | 70 | Turnover on downs | 3–24 |
| BAL | Q4 10:33 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 3–24 |
| LAC | Q4 6:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–24 |
| BAL | Q4 4:58 | 9 | 29 | End of half | 3–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 16/24 | 187 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 29 | 91 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 6 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 4 | 55 | 1 |
| Jamal Lewis | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.