Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
48
Model margin
+1.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.086
- 40.0%Success rate45.4%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.025
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.9%
- 40.9%Third-down rate44.1%
- 52.9%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.33Points / drive1.79
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.074EPA / play allowed-0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. DEN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:15 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:02 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 9:05 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 5:59 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 5:51 | 2 | 7 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q1 5:08 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q1 2:47 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 14:48 | 7 | 67 | Opp touchdown | 3–14 |
| DEN | Q2 11:46 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q2 11:46 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 3–14 |
| DEN | Q2 8:43 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q2 5:53 | 10 | 39 | Punt | 3–14 |
| DEN | Q2 1:22 | 7 | 61 | End of half | 3–14 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 85 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q3 7:51 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 3–21 |
| DEN | Q3 7:37 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| SEA | Q3 6:16 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| DEN | Q3 0:58 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–24 |
| SEA | Q4 14:51 | 12 | 68 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| DEN | Q4 9:21 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| SEA | Q4 5:57 | 2 | 37 | Turnover | 17–31 |
| DEN | Q4 5:10 | 6 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 17–31 |
| SEA | Q4 3:20 | 3 | 23 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| DEN | Q4 2:28 | 4 | 8 | End of half | 24–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 26/41 | 298 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 6 | 10 | 85 | 2 |
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 8 | 76 | 1 |
| Itula Mili | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 14/25 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 29 | 131 | 4.5 | 2 |
| KaRon Coleman | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 8 | 12 | 112 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 5 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.29