Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
48
Model margin
+1.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.086
- 40.0%Success rate45.4%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.025
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.9%
- 40.9%Third-down rate44.1%
- 52.9%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.33Points / drive1.79
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.074EPA / play allowed-0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 26/41 | 298 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 6 | 10 | 85 | 2 |
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 8 | 76 | 1 |
| Itula Mili | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 14/25 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 29 | 131 | 4.5 | 2 |
| KaRon Coleman | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 8 | 12 | 112 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 5 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.29