2000 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jeff George

13·32

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 66°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

WAS -6

Total

39

Model margin

-2.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.027EPA / play-0.074
  • 41.1%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.058EPA / dropback-0.085
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.061
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 39.0%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
  • 1.30Points / drive1.35
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.7%
  • -0.093EPA / play allowed+0.022

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
WASQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:2539Field goal0–3
WASQ1 11:243-17Punt0–3
DALQ1 9:49717Field goal0–6
WASQ1 6:2585Punt0–6
DALQ1 1:11642Missed field goal0–6
WASQ2 12:33862Touchdown7–6
DALQ2 7:57445Touchdown7–12
WASQ2 5:423-2Punt7–12
DALQ2 4:14515Punt7–12
WASQ2 1:05716Turnover7–12
DALQ2 0:091-1End of half7–12
DALQ3 15:00516Punt7–12
WASQ3 12:2011Turnover7–12
DALQ3 12:07222Touchdown7–19
WASQ3 11:22412Punt7–19
DALQ3 8:16865Field goal7–22
WASQ3 3:16632Punt7–22
DALQ4 14:48519Punt7–22
WASQ4 11:22743Turnover on downs7–22
DALQ4 9:08352Touchdown7–29
WASQ4 7:321194Touchdown13–29
DALQ4 4:02516Field goal13–32
WASQ4 1:55517Turnover on downs13–32
DALQ4 0:502-3End of half13–32

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff George19/3323511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis16573.61
Jeff George242.00
Adrian Murrell144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Thrash55620
Irving Fryar37561
Andre Reed23240
Stephen Alexander2480
Stephen Davis1170
Albert Connell0400

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Wright3/57300
Troy Aikman2/31600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith231506.51
Michael Wiley11383.50
Jason Tucker22914.51
Wane McGarity12222.01
Troy Aikman122.00
Anthony Wright510.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James McKnight24580
Jackie Harris22200
David LaFleur11110
Jason Tucker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -63.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.0%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.06
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.26