2000 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 66°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -6
Total
39
Model margin
-2.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.074
- 41.1%Success rate41.5%
- +0.058EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.061
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- 39.0%Third-down rate36.8%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 1.30Points / drive1.35
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.093EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 19/33 | 235 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jeff George | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Thrash | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 3 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Andre Reed | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 3/5 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 2/3 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 23 | 150 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Michael Wiley | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 1 |
| Wane McGarity | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 1 |
| Troy Aikman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 2 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.0%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.26