Closing spread
NO -10
Total
41
Model margin
+7.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.193EPA / play+0.008
- 37.5%Success rate42.1%
- -0.176EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.225EPA / rush-0.104
- 6.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- 29.3%Third-down rate42.9%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.06Points / drive1.53
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.015EPA / play allowed-0.071
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 4/10 | 81 | 0 | 1 |
| Doug Johnson | 5/10 | 45 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 3 | 4 | 79 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 1 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 24/35 | 285 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Milne | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 7 | 9 | 116 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Milne | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.52
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+7.71