Closing spread
SF -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.144EPA / play+0.086
- 38.4%Success rate42.2%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.195
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.115
- 6.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- 29.8%Third-down rate41.2%
- 35.6%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 0.80Points / drive1.90
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed+0.092
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. SF are 10-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 9/29 | 73 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 16 | 31 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kaseem Sinceno | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Dustin Lyman | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| James Allen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Dragos | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dez White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 36/44 | 402 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 20 | 22 | 283 | 1 |
| Jerry Rice | 7 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Charlie Garner | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.18