Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
47
Model margin
+6.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
6.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play+0.025
- 45.4%Success rate41.2%
- +0.171EPA / dropback+0.123
- -0.025EPA / rush-0.159
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- 44.1%Third-down rate36.7%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.79Points / drive1.42
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.030EPA / play allowed+0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 50 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:21 | 11 | 73 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 7:29 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 4:01 | 11 | 55 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q2 14:47 | 8 | 37 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q2 11:26 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| KC | Q2 11:26 | 6 | 52 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q2 9:08 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| KC | Q2 6:47 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q2 4:34 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 7–3 |
| KC | Q2 1:50 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q2 0:30 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–3 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q3 14:05 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 7–3 |
| KC | Q3 12:46 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q3 9:23 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–10 |
| KC | Q3 7:38 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q3 4:36 | 7 | 57 | Punt | 7–10 |
| KC | Q3 1:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q4 14:13 | 6 | 22 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| KC | Q4 11:38 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| DEN | Q4 7:14 | 5 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 7–17 |
| KC | Q4 5:34 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| DEN | Q4 0:33 | 3 | 34 | End of half | 7–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 22/34 | 234 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarious Jackson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 6 | 13 | 101 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 8 | 10 | 84 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 14/28 | 160 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Moreau | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Elvis Grbac | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 5 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Sylvester Morris | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
6.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.18