Closing spread
MIN -7.5
Total
49
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play+0.102
- 40.2%Success rate44.7%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.6%
- 38.8%Third-down rate46.0%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.67Points / drive2.14
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.033EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 73 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 7:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 6:08 | 8 | 82 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q1 2:04 | 1 | 78 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| GB | Q1 1:36 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| MIN | Q2 11:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–7 |
| GB | Q2 10:41 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–7 |
| MIN | Q2 9:17 | 6 | 50 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| GB | Q2 5:48 | 10 | 31 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| MIN | Q2 2:41 | 12 | 89 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| GB | Q2 0:20 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 20–14 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–14 |
| GB | Q3 12:46 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 23–14 |
| MIN | Q3 8:39 | 8 | 55 | Touchdown | 23–21 |
| GB | Q3 3:58 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 30–21 |
| MIN | Q4 14:56 | 8 | 28 | Turnover | 30–21 |
| GB | Q4 10:43 | 7 | 17 | Field goal | 33–21 |
| MIN | Q4 6:51 | 15 | 84 | Touchdown | 33–28 |
| GB | Q4 2:38 | 5 | 44 | End of half | 33–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 26/38 | 290 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 25 | 161 | 6.4 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 5 | -7 | -1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 6 | 9 | 97 | 1 |
| Bill Schroeder | 8 | 12 | 78 | 1 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 4 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| De'Mond Parker | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 23/38 | 335 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 4 | 6 | 136 | 1 |
| Cris Carter | 7 | 13 | 91 | 1 |
| Chris Walsh | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Palmer | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.23