Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
42
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.123EPA / play-0.033
- 45.8%Success rate38.4%
- +0.249EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.150
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- 46.8%Third-down rate34.3%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.04Points / drive1.52
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.005EPA / play allowed-0.111
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. MIA are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 11:41 | 4 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:11 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 7:28 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 5:45 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 4:24 | 2 | 25 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 3:28 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 2:02 | 9 | 36 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| MIA | Q2 12:22 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–0 |
| IND | Q2 10:37 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 14–0 |
| MIA | Q2 6:30 | 9 | 66 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| IND | Q2 1:54 | 7 | 46 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 15 | 56 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| MIA | Q3 6:41 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| IND | Q3 2:43 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 20–10 |
| MIA | Q4 12:50 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 20–10 |
| IND | Q4 9:09 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 20–10 |
| MIA | Q4 7:08 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| IND | Q4 3:25 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 20–13 |
| MIA | Q4 2:34 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 20–13 |
| IND | Q4 2:15 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 20–13 |
| MIA | Q4 0:24 | 2 | 16 | End of half | 20–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/28 | 206 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 32 | 112 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Pollard | 5 | 5 | 74 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison | 6 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 12/25 | 150 | 0 | 1 |
| Lamar Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 22 | 97 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 4 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.38