Closing spread
JAX -10.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.157
- 41.4%Success rate34.1%
- +0.066EPA / dropback-0.180
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.129
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- 42.8%Third-down rate34.8%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate34.6%
- 1.87Points / drive0.82
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 7-8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 19/28 | 170 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 32 | 110 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Shyrone Stith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 9 | 11 | 58 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 4 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mitchell | 10/22 | 171 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Scott Mitchell | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Peter Warrick | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Farmer | 5 | 6 | 102 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.28
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.66