2000 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

14·17

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Scott Mitchell

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 9°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

JAX -10.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBengals
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.157
  • 41.4%Success rate34.1%
  • +0.066EPA / dropback-0.180
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.129
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 42.8%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate34.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive0.82
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.022EPA / play allowed+0.014

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. CIN are 7-9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CIN
CINQ1 15:00421Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:44638Punt0–0
CINQ1 9:19625Punt0–0
JAXQ1 6:1839Punt0–0
CINQ1 4:39330Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 3:35522Punt0–0
CINQ1 1:21419Punt0–0
JAXQ2 14:15422Punt0–0
CINQ2 12:25935Punt0–0
JAXQ2 8:12827Punt0–0
CINQ2 3:2252Turnover0–0
JAXQ2 1:53533Touchdown7–0
CINQ2 0:2711End of half7–0
JAXQ3 15:00721Opp touchdown7–7
CINQ3 10:5700Opp touchdown7–7
JAXQ3 10:57726Punt7–7
JAXQ3 6:14311Touchdown14–7
CINQ3 4:5720Turnover14–7
JAXQ3 4:1035Punt14–7
CINQ3 2:08722Punt14–7
JAXQ4 14:151462Missed field goal14–7
CINQ4 4:371195Touchdown14–14
JAXQ4 1:1500Turnover14–14
CINQ4 1:07413Field goal14–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell19/2817010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor321103.41
Mark Brunell122.00
Shyrone Stith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan McCardell46610
Jimmy Smith911581
Kyle Brady48380
Fred Taylor22130

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Scott Mitchell10/2217101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon17764.50
Brandon Bennett7142.00
Scott Mitchell11212.01
Peter Warrick242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Farmer561020
Peter Warrick38380
Nicolas Luchey23310
Marco Battaglia0300
Brandon Bennett0100
Craig Yeast0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.28
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.66