Closing spread
NYG -6.5
Total
36
Model margin
-4.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.074
- 40.1%Success rate41.5%
- +0.137EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.061
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- 39.9%Third-down rate36.8%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 1.73Points / drive1.35
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 12/26 | 140 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 3 | 3 | 58 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 13/25 | 119 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 24 | 46 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Anthony Wright | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 2 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.5%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.36
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.98