2000 · Week 16
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
STL -1
Total
49
Model margin
+3.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 18/38 | 256 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 22 | 145 | 6.6 | 3 |
| Shaun King | 7 | 58 | 8.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 7 | 13 | 116 | 2 |
| Jacquez Green | 4 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.