2000 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -7
Total
38.5
Model margin
+7.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.126EPA / play-0.027
- 39.0%Success rate41.1%
- -0.066EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.243EPA / rush-0.148
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.1%
- 36.7%Third-down rate39.0%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.04Points / drive1.30
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.104EPA / play allowed-0.093
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 14/31 | 144 | 0 | 3 |
| Dave Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tywan Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 4 | 11 | 47 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 2 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 19/32 | 192 | 1 | 2 |
| Todd Husak | 2/2 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 27 | 120 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Todd Husak | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Alexander | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 3 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Stephen Davis | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+7.04