Closing spread
DET -10
Total
37
Model margin
+3.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.144EPA / play-0.143
- 38.4%Success rate36.6%
- -0.138EPA / dropback-0.141
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.146
- 6.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- 29.8%Third-down rate31.8%
- 35.6%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
- 0.80Points / drive1.23
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 14/18 | 123 | 0 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 5/11 | 60 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 22 | 72 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Marlon Barnes | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 7 | 12 | 79 | 1 |
| Eddie Kennison | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| James Allen | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Kaseem Sinceno | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Dez White | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Scott Dragos | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoney Case | 12/21 | 89 | 0 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 7/15 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Mario Bates | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 6 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 4 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| Herman Moore | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 2 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96