2000 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Shane Matthews

23·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Stoney Case

Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

DET -10

Total

37

Model margin

+3.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.144EPA / play-0.143
  • 38.4%Success rate36.6%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback-0.141
  • -0.156EPA / rush-0.146
  • 6.1%Explosive rate6.7%
  • 29.8%Third-down rate31.8%
  • 35.6%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
  • 0.80Points / drive1.23
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.110

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
CHIQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:49948Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 7:0900Touchdown0–9
DETQ1 6:5719Touchdown0–10
CHIQ1 6:521265Field goal3–10
DETQ2 13:49520Punt3–10
CHIQ2 11:361359Field goal6–10
DETQ2 4:37619Punt6–10
CHIQ2 2:3738Punt6–10
DETQ2 1:393-15Punt6–10
CHIQ2 1:1024End of half6–10
DETQ3 15:00615Punt6–10
CHIQ3 10:55426Punt6–10
DETQ3 9:13828Punt6–10
CHIQ3 6:11890Touchdown13–10
DETQ3 1:471060Touchdown13–17
CHIQ4 11:1442Punt13–17
DETQ4 9:12625Opp touchdown20–17
CHIQ4 6:3100Opp touchdown20–17
DETQ4 6:31717Punt20–17
CHIQ4 2:331-1Turnover20–17
DETQ4 2:2233Field goal20–20
CHIQ4 1:5635Punt20–20
DETQ4 1:29411Turnover20–20
CHIQ4 0:39419Field goal23–20
DETQ4 0:0200End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews14/1812300
Cade McNown5/116010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen22723.30
Marlon Barnes23015.00
Cade McNown231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker712791
Eddie Kennison35300
James Allen33240
Kaseem Sinceno34200
Dez White22200
Scott Dragos11100
D'Wayne Bates0100
Macey Brooks0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Stoney Case12/218901
Charlie Batch7/158110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart20572.90
Stoney Case5418.21
Mario Bates122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnnie Morton611600
David Sloan46331
Herman Moore46240
Germane Crowell28190
James Stewart12170
Mario Bates11120
Larry Foster0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.97
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.96