2000 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

27·24

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

Foxboro Stadium · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIA -4

Total

35

Model margin

+1.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.079
  • 38.4%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.081EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.195
  • 7.5%Explosive rate5.5%
  • 34.3%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.30
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.111EPA / play allowed+0.010

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 29–25 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE
2022 · W1NE @ MIA7–20MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
MIAQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:2633Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:5535Field goal3–0
NEQ1 9:561044Touchdown3–7
MIAQ1 4:0538Punt3–7
NEQ1 2:31515Punt3–7
MIAQ2 14:45930Punt3–7
NEQ2 9:42483Touchdown3–14
MIAQ2 8:16520Punt3–14
NEQ2 5:482-1Turnover3–14
MIAQ2 5:05312Touchdown10–14
NEQ2 3:403-1Punt10–14
MIAQ2 3:0547Touchdown17–14
NEQ2 2:131270Touchdown17–21
MIAQ2 0:0300End of half17–21
NEQ3 15:0032Punt17–21
MIAQ3 13:58633Missed field goal17–21
NEQ3 10:30843Field goal17–24
MIAQ3 6:17519Punt17–24
NEQ3 3:45258Turnover17–24
MIAQ3 2:591261Missed field goal17–24
NEQ4 12:11510Punt17–24
MIAQ4 9:271170Touchdown24–24
NEQ4 4:09222Turnover24–24
MIAQ4 3:441145Field goal27–24
NEQ4 0:0920End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler30/4526410
Damon Huard1/1700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith20261.32
Jay Fiedler22211.00
Autry Denson2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jed Weaver56630
Tony Martin49440
O.J. McDuffie56440
Oronde Gadsden713430
Lamar Smith22210
Deon Dyer22140
Jeff Ogden11120
Autry Denson22110
Hunter Goodwin22111
J.J. Johnson1280

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe18/3431222
Michael Bishop0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Faulk12342.80
Terry Glenn144.00
J.R. Redmond630.50
Tony Carter2-4-2.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Brown8111020
Jermaine Wiggins48810
Kevin Faulk24801
Terry Glenn27411
J.R. Redmond2480

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.53