Closing spread
MIA -4
Total
35
Model margin
+1.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.079
- 38.4%Success rate38.3%
- +0.081EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.195
- 7.5%Explosive rate5.5%
- 34.3%Third-down rate35.1%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.52Points / drive1.30
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.111EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 30/45 | 264 | 1 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 20 | 26 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jed Weaver | 5 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 7 | 13 | 43 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Deon Dyer | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| J.J. Johnson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 18/34 | 312 | 2 | 2 |
| Michael Bishop | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 8 | 11 | 102 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 4 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 4 | 80 | 1 |
| Terry Glenn | 2 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| J.R. Redmond | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.53