Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
35.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.056
- 39.6%Success rate40.2%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.052
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- 37.5%Third-down rate40.7%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
- 1.29Points / drive1.45
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.101EPA / play allowed-0.217
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 36/69 | 481 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 18 | 47 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedric Ward | 8 | 21 | 147 | 1 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 5 | 10 | 97 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 8 | 10 | 55 | 0 |
| Windrell Hayes | 1 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 11/25 | 99 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 22 | 52 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Pat Johnson | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.62