2000 · Week 17

Final

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

20·34

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Trent Dilfer

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -6

Total

35.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapRavens
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.056
  • 39.6%Success rate40.2%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.052
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • 37.5%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.45
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.101EPA / play allowed-0.217

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYJ @ BAL10–23BAL
2022 · W1BAL @ NYJ24–9BAL
2019 · W15NYJ @ BAL21–42BAL
2016 · W7BAL @ NYJ16–24NYJ
2013 · W12NYJ @ BAL3–19BAL
2011 · W4NYJ @ BAL17–34BAL
2010 · W1BAL @ NYJ10–9BAL
2007 · W2NYJ @ BAL13–20BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BAL
NYJQ1 15:00665Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 12:3635Turnover7–0
NYJQ1 11:00775Touchdown14–0
BALQ1 8:4938Punt14–0
NYJQ1 6:3236Punt14–0
BALQ1 5:3135Punt14–0
NYJQ1 3:30312Punt14–0
BALQ1 2:04412Turnover14–0
NYJQ1 0:0822Turnover14–0
BALQ2 14:51542Touchdown14–7
NYJQ2 12:0733Turnover14–7
BALQ2 11:2637Field goal14–10
NYJQ2 10:13530Turnover14–10
BALQ2 7:5642Turnover on downs14–12
NYJQ2 6:331-1Safety14–12
BALQ2 6:213-1Punt14–12
NYJQ2 5:03540Punt14–12
BALQ2 2:003-1Punt14–12
NYJQ2 1:09549Opp touchdown14–20
BALQ2 0:0700Opp touchdown14–20
NYJQ2 0:0700End of half14–20
BALQ3 15:003-5Punt14–20
NYJQ3 13:01647Field goal17–20
BALQ3 10:58641Punt17–20
NYJQ3 7:2332Opp touchdown17–27
BALQ3 6:1900Opp touchdown17–27
NYJQ3 6:191065Turnover on downs17–27
BALQ3 1:3347Punt17–27
NYJQ3 0:07935Field goal20–27
BALQ4 11:5948Punt20–27
NYJQ4 10:3039Punt20–27
BALQ4 9:4031Punt20–27
NYJQ4 8:22324Turnover20–27
BALQ4 7:4037Missed field goal20–27
NYJQ4 6:1133Opp touchdown20–34
BALQ4 5:0200Opp touchdown20–34
NYJQ4 5:021255Turnover20–34
BALQ4 2:0234Punt20–34
NYJQ4 0:5143End of half20–34

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde36/6948123

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin18472.60
Vinny Testaverde200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dedric Ward8211471
Wayne Chrebet510970
Curtis Martin810550
Windrell Hayes17200
Anthony Becht24150
Laveranues Coles0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer11/259912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis22522.40
Priest Holmes273.50
Trent Dilfer133.00
Tony Banks122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe57460
Priest Holmes34400
Qadry Ismail1471
Pat Johnson0600
Trent Dilfer11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

40.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.62