Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. SD are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 16/32 | 190 | 1 | 2 |
| Jerome Bettis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 10 | 81 | 8.1 | 2 |
| Jerome Bettis | 26 | 51 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtney Hawkins | 5 | 10 | 71 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.